Seems that the long awaited health care bill will finally receive some House and Senate floor debate between now and Thanksgiving. Yet, will this Thanksgiving be a time for the American people to be grateful to our Congress for the end product of true health care reform, or will our traditional Thanksgiving meal be full of disappointment and disenchantment? With this in mind, let me lay out a strategy Congress may implement, in an effort to ultimately pass the health care bill in the coming weeks. 

Since the House of Representatives operates under the Rules committee system, the Majority party is able to completely control the floor debate. While it can be anticipated that the debate will be long and robust, especially by House standards, ultimately, little chance will be given the opposition to amend the 1990 page health care bill. Given this scenario, the bill will come to a final vote after a few long days of debate. Assuming the House Leadership can muster the votes necessary to pass the bill, the health care reform bill should arrive in the Senate chamber about the time the Senate has been considering it’s version of the bill for a few days. 

On the other side of the U.S. Capitol, picture “Mr. Smith goes to Washington style debate” echoing in the Senate chamber. While these speeches may seem eloquent and truly historic, the democratic process providing for opposition will be anything but historic. You see, this writer believes the Senate Majority Leader will fail to garner the necessary 60 votes needed to end the GOP/opposition filibuster of the health care bill. With this in mind, he will have at his disposal a “plan B” in the form of the recent House passed health care bill having arrived in the Senate.

The Majority Leader will be able to pivot from the stalled Senate bill, and turn to the newly passed House bill under the terms of the reconciliation budget process. This allows passage in the Senate after only 20 hours of debate. It also requires only a majority of Senators to vote in favor of final product. Additionally, at the conclusion of the 20 hours for debate, Senators can still call up amendments and receive votes, all without debate. I am guessing that many readers are familiar with the “read the bill campaign” This process under reconciliation of getting votes on amendments without debate is known as vote-a-rama. This writer believes the vote-a-rama under reconciliation will make “read the bill” look like a trivial complaint. Also, the failed attempt to garner 60 votes in the Senate will create a momentum to pass “something”, which will now be in the form of the House passed health care bill, under the rules of reconciliation. 

U. S. Senate history tells us that since the creation of the reconciliation process in the late 70’s, the Senate has used the reconciliation process 23 times. Of those 23 bills passed in the Senate, the average “yea” vote to pass these bills is 67.25 votes. While the upcoming Congressional debate on the health care bill may sound eloquent and historic, it could possibly create some of the most memorable heartburn and distasteful flavors ever experienced at any Thanksgiving table.

This video shows how our health care system may be debated in the United States Senate this coming Fall.

Elizabeth Letchworth is the Owner-Founder of GradeGov.com, 4 times elected United States Senate Secretary for the Majority/Minority, U. S. Senate-retired, presently senior legislative advisor @ Covington & Burling, LLC